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strategy

Fold equity

The part of a bet's value that comes from the chance the opponent folds. A bet with a hand that has 30% equity but makes the opponent fold half the time is far better than the 30% suggests.

Example. Shoving 15 big blinds with A-5 suited from the button is profitable mostly because both blinds fold often enough.

Fold equity is why aggressive play works: you win pots you would lose at showdown. It rises when the opponent's range is weak or capped, when they are short in a tournament under ICM pressure, and when your bet is large relative to their stack. It disappears against a player who is already all-in or who never folds — against those, bet only for value.

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