Poker term
Alpha (bluff break-even)
The percentage of the time a bluff needs to work to break even: bet ÷ (bet + pot). It is the mirror image of minimum defence frequency.
Frequently asked questions
What is alpha in poker?
The proportion of the time a bluff needs to succeed to break even. It is the mirror image of minimum defence frequency, and it depends only on the size of your bet relative to the pot.
How do you calculate alpha?
Bet divided by pot plus bet. A pot-sized bet needs to work 50% of the time, a half-pot bet 33%, a quarter-pot bet 20%, and a two-times-pot overbet 67%.
What does it tell you about bet sizing?
That size and bluffing frequency are linked, not independent choices. Small bets need to work rarely, so they can be made with many hands; large bets need to work often, so they belong where the opponent's range is genuinely weak or capped.